Fashion Week Forecast | a commentary on trend, business & designer survival

Unbelievably, New York Fashion Week is here again and that means the haute topic for the upcoming weeks will be the grand shows, the celebrity sightings and the upcoming fads.  As far as carry-over trends go, you wouldn’t be mistaken if you confidently declared leggings, layers, chunky booties and drapey tunics to be the ultimate surviving trend.  But, you would be overlooking an even more important trend that has the Garment District struggling to hold onto.  Survival.  How does a designer keep creativity alive and put out a press-worthy collection that people will actually buy during an extended shopping slow-down.

Beginning tomorrow, designers will be flooding the tents to reveal the formula for success they’ve chosen during this recession and I thought I would offer up some of my own predictions.

Prediction no. ONE – Acute Arithmetic
Being that designers have had some time now to adjust their businesses to the depressed economy, I forecast that smart designers will send their lanky models down the runway in highly edited, thoughtful collections comprised of rich accent pieces.  I also expect that those pieces will be given a friendlier price-point.  Business math is simple, either make less profit per piece and sell lots of units or, make large margins per piece and sell fewer units.  Rather than taint their designer name with pedestrian prices, some brands will opt to launch a lower-end line in hopes of capturing a broad clientele and, if managed correctly, that business model may add up to huge profits once the economy rebounds and the more expensive label is, once again, attainable.

Prediction no. TWO – Evolved Chatter
Like clock-work, at the start of every season, fashion circles begin waxing poetic about all the same – ever so important – stuff.  Silhouettes are scrutinized, the season’s color is ordained, artistic inspiration is exposed and the evolution of trends and themes are explored.  I know I’m going out on a limb with this prediction, but here it goes.  I forecast that this year, fashion’s conventional chatter will evolve to include a deeper and more educated discussion of brand positioning, marketing, costing and quality.  Of course, girlfriends will still discuss how shoes can make an outfit and how to update your look with the proper accessories, but knowing that they have to edit their purchases more than ever, a brand’s quality, vision and creative use of social media outlets will become an important part of the conversation.

Prediction no. THREE – Genuine Style
I forecast that mere financial survival instincts will accidentally encourage those people who are accustomed to purchasing a brand new seasonal wardrobe to re-assess their current closets and do with what they already own.  And in doing so, this simple act of “suffering” might just help them to finally identify their genuine personal style.  It simply isn’t reality today to adopt a designer’s avant-garde definition of what today’s style is.  As we know, that vision will last a whole three months before seeming entirely ridiculous (and a pure waste of money).  Just watch an old episode of Sex and the City and you’ll see how following trends has an uncanny ability to date you to no end.  Dressing like “you” is always on trend.

Prediction no. FOUR – Responsive Renewal
It may sound silly, but the excitement created when store windows are transformed from season to season communicates that change, everywhere, is in the air.  It’s time to re-new and evolve.  The mere predictability of this metamorphosis stimulates a sense of comfort.  We know that life is moving forward, just as it should.  Everything is on track, and everything is fine.  This season, during a time when it seems there are too many unknowns to manage gracefully, empowering a sense of the status quo is more important than ever.  With the introduction of new frocks hanging on racks that have been cut into the latest silhouettes from seasonally appropriate colors, comes revitalized enthusiasm, a fresh source of inspiration and a feeling of optimism.  Regeneration becomes tangible and our spirits are lifted.  Even if we do more window shopping than actual shopping, we know that our world is on track and we’re moving forward.