Unbelievably, New York Fashion Week is here again and that means the haute topic for the upcoming weeks will be the grand shows, the celebrity sightings and the upcoming fads.  As far as carry-over trends go, you wouldn’t be mistaken if you confidently declared leggings, layers, chunky booties and drapey tunics to be the ultimate surviving trend.  But, you would be overlooking an even more important trend that has the Garment District struggling to hold onto.  Survival.  How does a designer keep creativity alive and put out a press-worthy collection that people will actually buy during an extended shopping slow-down.

Beginning tomorrow, designers will be flooding the tents to reveal the formula for success they’ve chosen during this recession and I thought I would offer up some of my own predictions.

Prediction no. ONE – Acute Arithmetic
Being that designers have had some time now to adjust their businesses to the depressed economy, I forecast that smart designers will send their lanky models down the runway in highly edited, thoughtful collections comprised of rich accent pieces.  I also expect that those pieces will be given a friendlier price-point.  Business math is simple, either make less profit per piece and sell lots of units or, make large margins per piece and sell fewer units.  Rather than taint their designer name with pedestrian prices, some brands will opt to launch a lower-end line in hopes of capturing a broad clientele and, if managed correctly, that business model may add up to huge profits once the economy rebounds and the more expensive label is, once again, attainable.

Prediction no. TWO – Evolved Chatter
Like clock-work, at the start of every season, fashion circles begin waxing poetic about all the same – ever so important – stuff.  Silhouettes are scrutinized, the season’s color is ordained, artistic inspiration is exposed and the evolution of trends and themes are explored.  I know I’m going out on a limb with this prediction, but here it goes.  I forecast that this year, fashion’s conventional chatter will evolve to include a deeper and more educated discussion of brand positioning, marketing, costing and quality.  Of course, girlfriends will still discuss how shoes can make an outfit and how to update your look with the proper accessories, but knowing that they have to edit their purchases more than ever, a brand’s quality, vision and creative use of social media outlets will become an important part of the conversation.

Prediction no. THREE – Genuine Style
I forecast that mere financial survival instincts will accidentally encourage those people who are accustomed to purchasing a brand new seasonal wardrobe to re-assess their current closets and do with what they already own.  And in doing so, this simple act of “suffering” might just help them to finally identify their genuine personal style.  It simply isn’t reality today to adopt a designer’s avant-garde definition of what today’s style is.  As we know, that vision will last a whole three months before seeming entirely ridiculous (and a pure waste of money).  Just watch an old episode of Sex and the City and you’ll see how following trends has an uncanny ability to date you to no end.  Dressing like “you” is always on trend.

Prediction no. FOUR – Responsive Renewal
It may sound silly, but the excitement created when store windows are transformed from season to season communicates that change, everywhere, is in the air.  It’s time to re-new and evolve.  The mere predictability of this metamorphosis stimulates a sense of comfort.  We know that life is moving forward, just as it should.  Everything is on track, and everything is fine.  This season, during a time when it seems there are too many unknowns to manage gracefully, empowering a sense of the status quo is more important than ever.  With the introduction of new frocks hanging on racks that have been cut into the latest silhouettes from seasonally appropriate colors, comes revitalized enthusiasm, a fresh source of inspiration and a feeling of optimism.  Regeneration becomes tangible and our spirits are lifted.  Even if we do more window shopping than actual shopping, we know that our world is on track and we’re moving forward.

I was quite happy to discover that The New York Times did a spread about an apartment that I regularly admire.  It stands across from my gym (Equinox, where you get a good view of the rooftop home while hunched over the evil Butt Blaster machine) in the West Village.  The apartment graces the top of a building who’s ground floor is occupied by Tea and Sympathy, a wee little English restaurant and grocery shoppe.

The wall of white paned glass stands proudly above the manic energy of New York life, and it is there that the current tenant finds peace in her 350 sq ft home.

Needless to say, it’s a sad reality that makes it the norm to pay on average $41 per sq ft for a rental apartment in Manhattan.  So, it speaks volumes for the magnetism of the City that millions of smart, ambitious, upwardly mobile people with good taste will happily cram themselves into a cubbyhole and call it home.

Chez Moi | Le Gendarme

I did it for 9 years.  Though we bounced between newer buildings in Chelsea for a few years, it was the former police building in the West Village, Le Gendarme, that welcomed us home for the long haul.  It is said that our apartment was in fact one of the holding cells when the building was an active police station.

I’m not sure what it says about my personality that it is in a cell that I chose to spend some of my best years in NYC, but the space boasted high ceilings and a loft that we loaded full with storage.  I even kept all my pots, pans, tupperware, and shoes up there since these was no room for it all in the actual living space.  Perhaps the best feature of the apartment was the planted outdoor space that we and our 2 dogs shared with 6 humans, 4 cats and a bunny.

Apparently our strange apartment, rich with character, had more admirers than just our friends as Apartment Therapy featured our tiny space on their website.  I still wish I had been able to clean up and stage the place a little before the photo shoot – there’s crap everywhere, but having our curious place documented has already proven to be a fun thing to have for posterity.

Just for sentimental and historic purposes, I dug up another fun article published in 1987 , also by The New York Times, that talks about our police precinct home and the proposed development of the area, the Far West Village.  New York is such an amazing city in that it is constantly evolving and moving forward while holding tightly to its unique history with respect and deserved arrogance.

Early morning scene on the way to my studio|showroom

For me it was also fun to see the Meatpacking District mentioned in this archaic article.  In the late 80’s it was still the neighborhood where meat was in fact butchered and packed.  Today, only two plants still exist and the rest of the neighborhood has been taken over by luxury retail and designer showrooms.  Laura Dahl and Wifebeader even called the Meatpacking District home.

Every morning I would dodge cow carcases dangling by hooks as they were hauled into the packing plant.  Again, I know it may sound strange, but the vision of friendly butchers sporting full mustaches, dressed in their bloodied whites and smelling the scent of flesh mixed with cleaning solution and City dirt is one truly awesome way to begin a day.

No one really knows where the next decade will take the City.  But, it is most fair to say that wherever that is, the people responsible for making its heart beat will be living in tiny apartments, and they will be loving it.

P.S.  Keep an eye out for Apartment Therapy’s follow-up book to their successful Real Homes, Real People, Hundreds of Design Solutions where you can catch a glimpse of our Los Angeles home.  I’ve been told its release date is late ‘09, early ‘10 and it will be titled something to the effect of Smart, Small Spaces.